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Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August?

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August?" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

↑ 1,900 90% ↓ 1,800 77% ↑ 2,000 62% ↓ 1,700 45% Volume: $105K Liquidity: $366K Closes: 1 Sept 2026
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Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↑ 1,90090%
↓ 1,80077%
↑ 2,00062%
↓ 1,70045%
↑ 2,10040%
↓ 1,60027%
↑ 2,20019%
↓ 1,50015%
↑ 2,30012%
↓ 1,40010%
↑ 2,4007%
↓ 1,3005%
↑ 2,5004%
↑ 2,6002%
↓ 1,2002%
↑ 3,0001%
↑ 2,7001%
↓ 1,1001%
↓ 1,0001%
↓ 9001%

Market context

Ethereum’s August trading range is still being read through a weak spot price and a cluster of modelled targets that sit well above it, which helps explain why a 1% chance of a specific upside level can coexist with a market that has not fully priced out a rebound. Binance’s August 2026 forecast spans roughly $1,777 to $3,399, while Changelly puts the month between about $1,717 and $2,747, and other services cluster around the low- to mid-$2,000s rather than anything extreme.[1][2][4][8][10] That is a familiar pattern in crypto prediction markets: when the underlying price is already depressed, traders often assign very low odds to a sharp one-month spike unless there is a clear catalyst, even if broader forecasts still imply recovery later in the year.[3][5][13]

For August, the main catalysts are technical and event-driven rather than narrative-led. CoinPedia notes ETH is trading near $1,865 after failing to hold above a rising trendline, with $1,807 and $1,717 acting as near-term support and $2,000 as the first meaningful reclaim level; a break of that band would materially improve the chances of a higher monthly print.[3] CryptoSlate also reports market-implied odds that place the key upside thresholds at $1,900, $2,000 and $2,100, which suggests traders are watching whether momentum can extend beyond the current consolidation rather than focusing on long-dated targets.[5] Any fresh commentary on network upgrades, ETF flow trends or broader crypto liquidity could matter, but in the absence of a major announcement the month looks set to be driven mainly by whether ETH can clear those resistance levels early enough to stay there.[4][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

Ethereum (ETH) Prediction Markets