Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,900 | 90% |
| ↓ 1,800 | 77% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 62% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 45% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 40% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 27% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 19% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 15% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 12% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 10% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 7% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 5% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,600 | 2% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 2% |
| ↑ 3,000 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,700 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,100 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,000 | 1% |
| ↓ 900 | 1% |
Market context
Ethereum’s August trading range is still being read through a weak spot price and a cluster of modelled targets that sit well above it, which helps explain why a 1% chance of a specific upside level can coexist with a market that has not fully priced out a rebound. Binance’s August 2026 forecast spans roughly $1,777 to $3,399, while Changelly puts the month between about $1,717 and $2,747, and other services cluster around the low- to mid-$2,000s rather than anything extreme.[1][2][4][8][10] That is a familiar pattern in crypto prediction markets: when the underlying price is already depressed, traders often assign very low odds to a sharp one-month spike unless there is a clear catalyst, even if broader forecasts still imply recovery later in the year.[3][5][13]
For August, the main catalysts are technical and event-driven rather than narrative-led. CoinPedia notes ETH is trading near $1,865 after failing to hold above a rising trendline, with $1,807 and $1,717 acting as near-term support and $2,000 as the first meaningful reclaim level; a break of that band would materially improve the chances of a higher monthly print.[3] CryptoSlate also reports market-implied odds that place the key upside thresholds at $1,900, $2,000 and $2,100, which suggests traders are watching whether momentum can extend beyond the current consolidation rather than focusing on long-dated targets.[5] Any fresh commentary on network upgrades, ETF flow trends or broader crypto liquidity could matter, but in the absence of a major announcement the month looks set to be driven mainly by whether ETH can clear those resistance levels early enough to stay there.[4][19]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit in August? on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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