Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
52% | 48% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
52% | 48% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↓ 1,800 | 52% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 18% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 12% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 5% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 2% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 2% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum is trading well below its 2025 peak, with recent data showing ETH around $1,739 and down 37.18% over the past 12 months, while the 52-week range has run from $1,388.12 to $4,955.90.[1] That makes a fresh move into a materially higher band during 3-9 August a tougher ask than the market title suggests, especially with several independent forecast models clustering August 2026 outcomes mostly in the low-to-mid $2,000s rather than near extreme levels.[15][17][18] In comparable terms, ETH has been capable of sharp multi-week rebounds, but the current backdrop is still one of recovery rather than trend acceleration.[3][8]
For traders, the main catalysts are likely to be spot-price momentum through the week, any sudden shift in risk appetite across crypto, and whether ETH can hold above the recent 1.7K area that has appeared repeatedly in July and early August prints.[3][5][10] A break above that band would strengthen the case for a higher August range, while another fade would keep the market anchored near the lower-probability outcomes already implied by the crowd and by some forecasting models.[14][15] There is no Ethereum-specific “line-up” news in the sporting sense, so the key dependencies are market-wide: Bitcoin direction, liquidity conditions, and any protocol, ETF, or regulatory headlines that hit during the settlement window.[19]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: What price will Ethereum hit August 3-9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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