Pronóstico: Ethereum above 2026 on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on whether the Binance 1-minute ETH/USDT candle closes above a specified price at noon ET on 26 June 2026. With the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES, the current Binance spot price sits near $1,576, while recent weekly data shows ETH has declined 7.70% over seven days and 2.80% in the last 24 hours[4]. Historical comparisons from early June 2026 reveal ETH dropped to $1,663.67 on 5 June, representing a $114.60 fall from the prior day and roughly $750 lower than a year earlier[2]. Such volatility suggests that even a 100% implied probability warrants scrutiny, as comparable periods have seen sharp intraday reversals despite strong short-term trends.

Traders should monitor Binance’s real-time 1-minute candle data for ETH/USDT with “Candles” and “1m” selected, as this is the sole resolution source[5]. Key catalysts include any scheduled Ethereum network upgrades, major DeFi protocol announcements, or shifts in US monetary policy that could trigger rapid price swings before the 12:00 ET settlement window. CoinGecko reports ETH’s 24-hour trading volume at $14.56 billion, with Binance handling $576.8 million in ETH/USDT volume alone, indicating high liquidity but also susceptibility to sudden order-flow imbalances[4]. No suspensions or injuries apply here, but the dependency on a single exchange’s data feed means traders must watch for potential latency or technical glitches on Binance’s platform as the deadline approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.