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Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 100% Volume: $250K Closes: 3 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5)100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5)0%

Market context

Team Heretics, the Spanish squad that just reverse-swept Fnatic to win the Valorant Esports World Cup title in Riyadh, face All Gamers in a Group D BO3 match scheduled for 7:00AM ET on 3 July [1]. This is the first time these two teams have met, with Heretics ranked #19 globally and winning three of their last five matches, while All Gamers sit at #62 and have won four of their last five [2]. The crowd-implied 100% probability for Heretics mirrors historical patterns where world champions entering group stages against significantly lower-ranked opponents rarely falter; in past Esports World Cups, top-tier winners like Gen.G (who started 4-0) dominated lower-ranked groups without losing a single match [1][4].

Traders should monitor the official BO3 start time at 10:58 AM local Riyadh time and any sudden roster changes, as Heretics recently confirmed coach Johnta’s appointment after Tanizhq’s departure, with no active injuries reported [2][8]. Strafe users currently predict a Heretics win with 90.5% confidence, and Vlr.gg stats show Heretics winning 2-1 against All Gamers in a prior encounter, though this is the first official Group D match [2][5]. The key dependency is match completion: if the game is delayed beyond seven days or ends in a tie, the market resolves to 50-50, but Heretics’ current form and world-title momentum make that outcome highly improbable [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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