Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-8.5) vs GIANTX (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs GIANTX (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
Market context
GIANTX face Team Heretics in a VCT EMEA Group Omega best-of-three, and the market’s 0% YES price is far below the live matchup read. Recent form points towards Heretics as the more stable side: one recent source has them at 3-2 in their last five, versus GIANTX at 1-4, while also noting Heretics’ stronger half-year results and GIANTX’s poor run of four defeats in five.[1][4]
The historical frame also leans Heretics. Across the recent head-to-head sample, Heretics hold the edge, with one database showing a 3-1 series lead over the last four meetings and another reporting 4-0 in official BO3s, plus a broader map advantage; however, GIANTX did upset Heretics 2-0 in the January 2026 Kickoff meeting, which is the main counterweight to a one-sided series narrative.[1][9][12] That makes the current price unusually sensitive to whether traders give more weight to the longer-term matchup or to GIANTX’s ability to win a recent direct meeting.[1][16]
For traders, the key catalysts are roster confirmation, late schedule changes, and whether the match starts on time, because a no-contest or delay beyond seven days would push settlement to 50-50 under the market rules. The latest match pages list starters for both teams, with GIANTX fielding Flickless and neT, and Heretics featuring benjyfishy and Wo0t, so any last-minute substitute news would matter more than general form.[1][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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