Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: SGE (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Gentle Mates and Eintracht Frankfurt are scheduled to compete in the lower bracket round one of the VCT EMEA Play-Ins on 12 August at 16:00 UTC. This best-of-three match determines who advances in Valorant's regional qualifying tournament for EMEA, with the loser eliminated from contention. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about the fixture's viability or structural issues preventing normal market formation.
The VCT EMEA Play-Ins format has historically produced unpredictable results when lower-seeded or less-established rosters face off, particularly when team preparation and scrim data remain opaque to the betting public. Frankfurt's participation as an esports division of the established German football club represents a relatively recent entry into competitive Valorant, whilst Gentle Mates' roster composition and recent tournament performance require verification against current squad announcements. Head-to-head records between these specific line-ups are unlikely to exist given the competitive tier and regional structure.
Traders should monitor official VCT EMEA scheduling confirmations through Riot Games' esports portal and team social channels for any roster changes, stand-in announcements, or match postponements in the week preceding 12 August. Visa or travel complications affecting either squad could trigger the cancellation clause. Recent changes to either team's competitive line-up—particularly mid-tournament substitutions—would materially affect match outcome probability. The settlement window closing at 21:00 UTC on match day allows for same-day resolution, though delays beyond seven days would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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