Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
EDward Gaming and TYLOO face off in a Best-of-3 clash for VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha on 15 July, with the market currently pricing a TYLOO victory at 0% despite their recent tactical breakthrough. Historical data overwhelmingly favours EDward Gaming, who hold an 11–1 record across twelve prior encounters, yet the 2–0 defeat TYLOO inflicted in May 2026 proves their playstyle can be countered effectively [2][5]. This divergence between long-term dominance and recent vulnerability mirrors patterns seen in other regional leagues where a lower-ranked team secures a psychological edge through a single decisive win, temporarily distorting probability before form reasserts itself.
Traders must monitor TYLOO’s current 2–0 Group Alpha record and +29 round differential, which signals strong early momentum that could sustain if EDward Gaming’s recent fatigue persists [8]. EDward Gaming’s half-year 67% winrate contrasts with a poor 33% winrate in the last month, suggesting potential vulnerability against TYLOO’s solid 54% stability [5]. Key catalysts include official lineup confirmations for both sides, as EDward Gaming’s roster (CHICHOO, Nobody, Smoggy, ZmjjKK, Jieni7) and TYLOO’s (Scales, SiuFatBB, slowly, splash, Erv) remain unchanged but could face in-game substitutions or strategic shifts [5]. Any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger a 50–50 settlement, making schedule adherence critical.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: EDward Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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