Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 99% |
| Match Winner | 99% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
White Dragons and Tung Tung Bogi were due to meet in LPLOL Playoffs quarter-final action on 27 August, with the match listed as a best-of-five and later recorded as a White Dragons 3-0 win. White Dragons also entered the tie as the higher-rated side on the tournament listings, and the market’s 100% YES price is consistent with a fixture that has already been settled on the server rather than one still carrying meaningful uncertainty.[1][2][4][15]
For context, LPLOL playoff quarter-finals are being played across late August and early September, so the main historical comparison is not a league table swing but the usual playoff information gap: before a series starts, prices can look decisive when one roster is more established or more highly ranked, yet they remain vulnerable to late bracket changes, stream delays, or official rescheduling. This matchup was also treated as a first competitive meeting between the sides in the available match listings, which leaves little head-to-head evidence to challenge the pre-match lean.[4][6][13]
Traders should watch for any official note on whether the result is final for settlement purposes, because the contract only flips to 50-50 if the match was not played, tied, or postponed beyond the rescheduling cut-off. Roster pages around the fixture showed White Dragons with a fuller listed squad, while Tung Tung Bogi’s public listing was thinner, though provider line-ups were explicitly flagged as non-confirmed starting fives, so only official team announcements should move the market late.[11][15]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi (BO… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →