Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 71% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 70% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 34% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 28% |
| Game 1 Winner | 18% |
| Game 2 Winner | 18% |
| Match Winner | 9% |
Market context
Team Heretics meet G2 Esports in an LEC regular-season best-of-three, and the market’s 18% YES price leaves Heretics as a sizeable outsider. Recent comparable meetings have pointed the same way: G2 swept Heretics 2-0 in April 2026, and other listed head-to-head records show G2 winning every recent series in the matchup, with some sources putting the all-time tally at 12-0 in G2’s favour.[7][15] That kind of one-sided history matters because BO3s usually reward the cleaner macro team, and G2’s recent match reports continue to frame them as the more stable side in draft execution and mid-game control.[1][6]
The key trading angle is whether anything changes in line-ups or scheduling before champion select. Available previews describe G2’s core around Caps, Hans Sama, SkewMond and Labrov as intact, while Heretics’ recent rebuild has centred on newer pieces such as Sheo, Kamiloo and Flakked settling into structure.[1][10] That makes late roster news, visa issues, or any last-minute substitute announcement the main catalyst to watch, especially because the market only resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, is tied, or slips beyond the seven-day window without a winner.[2][5] With the settlement window ending the same day, any postponement would be especially relevant.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) -… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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