Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
Solary’s BO1 against Vitality.Bee in the LFL regular season sits in a familiar rivalry pattern: the matchup has historically tilted towards Vitality.Bee overall, but Solary took the most recent confirmed meeting 1-0 in April 2026, which is the cleanest recent head-to-head marker for this market.[1][3][4] Longer-run records still lean Vitality.Bee, with one source putting the all-time head-to-head at 18-13 in Vitality.Bee’s favour, while another archive shows 17-8 across earlier meetings; both point to a modest but real historical edge for Vitality.Bee rather than a one-sided fixture.[4][11] That mix helps explain why a 0% crowd-implied YES price is unstable: in a single-map format, recent form and draft execution can outweigh the broader series history.
For traders, the main catalysts are lineup confirmation, late schedule changes and whether either side arrives with the same roster core that featured in the spring and summer LFL runs.[4][10] The available match listings show the game scheduled as a best-of-one on 30 July, but no reliable pre-match injury, suspension or forfeiture news is indicated in the sources provided.[4][7] Vitality.Bee’s stronger recent ranking on one tracker and Solary’s upset in the last head-to-head both matter less than any late announcement on substitutions or a rescheduled start time, because BO1 volatility is high and the settlement rules would only move to 50-50 if the match were not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.[4][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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