Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: DIA (-1.5) vs Shark Attack (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
Shark Attack and DIA Ozarox Esports are due to meet in a best-of-three upper-bracket round 2 series in the TCL Play-Ins, with the scheduled start listed at 14:30 UTC. The market’s 0% YES price is hard to reconcile with the live listing and pre-match pricing, which have both shown the series as scheduled rather than voided, so the main uncertainty is competitive, not procedural.[1][4][7]
The form line is thin but useful. Both teams entered this series off opening-round wins: Shark Attack beat Dark Passage 2-1, while DIA Ozarox Esports defeated Team Phoenix 2-0.[2][8] That leaves a small sample on each side, and the available match data suggests no recent head-to-head record in the past six months, which means traders have little direct evidence for stylistic match-up effects.[2][3][6] Comparable cases in this bracket have also been decided by first-map pressure rather than long-run pedigree, which matters because neither roster has a deep current results history to lean on.[2][6]
For catalysts, the key watchpoints are whether the series begins on time, whether the published line-ups remain unchanged, and whether any schedule shift pushes resolution into the 7-day void window. Public match pages list full starting rosters for both sides, with no injury or suspension news attached, so line-up confirmation is the main live variable rather than personnel uncertainty.[2][6] BO3 markets in this setting can move quickly if one team shows a clean veto edge or if the broadcast listing changes, but at present there is no reported postponement or cancellation signal in the tournament feeds.[1][11][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Shark Attack vs DIA Ozarox Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: Shark Attack vs DIA Ozarox Esports … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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