Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game 1 Winner | 95% |
| Game 2 Winner | 95% |
| Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs UB Alma Mater (+1.5) | 92% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 57% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 43% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 8% |
Market context
Team Heretics Academy meet UB Alma Mater in the LES Regular Season best-of-three, with the market already pricing a very one-sided contest. The teams’ only recent head-to-head ended 2-0 to Team Heretics Academy in the Spring regular season, and multiple match listings still show the same result as the most recent direct meeting.[1][4][9]
That history fits the wider form line. Strafe lists Team Heretics Academy as having won four of their last five matches, while UB Alma Mater are shown with zero wins in their last five; BO3.gg’s recent-form section also depicts a strong run for Los Heretics and a poor sequence for UB Alma Mater, reinforcing why the crowd-implied 95% YES is high.[4][3] On comparative strength, GosuGamers also places Team Heretics Academy far above UB Alma Mater in its ranking snapshot, with the academy side around 20th and UB around 110th.[12]
For traders, the main catalysts are lineup confirmation and whether the fixture starts on schedule, because this market resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or pushed beyond the settlement rules. Current match pages show a scheduled online BO3 at 15:00 and repeated starter lists for both sides, but no late roster change or cancellation notice is evident in the available results.[5][8][12] The most relevant live check is whether Team Heretics Academy retain the same core that has been posting the recent winning streak, and whether UB Alma Mater field the same five named in the pre-match listings.[3][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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