Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 74% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Game Handicap: DCG (-1.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+1.5) | 47% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 47% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 46% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 43% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
Market context
Deep Cross Gaming meet Ground Zero Gaming in the LCP Group Stage BO3, with the market leaning to Ground Zero at 68% despite the historical edge sitting with Deep Cross. Across their recorded meetings, Deep Cross have won 7 of 8 head-to-heads, including a 2-1 series win in May 2026, which is the clearest comparable for reading this price[1]. That creates a familiar split for traders: the stronger recent series record points one way, but the broader form picture is more mixed, with Deep Cross taking just 1 of their last 5 matches and Ground Zero none of theirs[1].
The line is likely being driven less by the rivalry and more by current form and perceived team strength. Strafe’s rankings place Ground Zero at #8 and Deep Cross at #49, which helps explain why the crowd has pushed above parity even though the direct matchup favours Deep Cross[1]. Recent official roster material also shows both teams entering with the same five-man line-ups that have been used in LCP play this season, so any late swap would matter, but there is no roster-change news in the available sources[4][14].
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: starting line-ups, whether the match goes ahead on schedule, and any broadcast or schedule note that could affect the July 30 start time. The market settles 50-50 if the match is not played, ends tied, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, so any official postponement would be more important than pre-match sentiment[1].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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