Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs TEAM VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
TEAM VISION and Team Falcons meet in Round 2 of The International Group Stage on 13 August 2026, a best-of-three fixture scheduled for 05:00 ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme uncertainty about team availability, fixture confirmation status, or a technical issue with market seeding. The International remains Dota 2's premier annual tournament, with group-stage matches typically proceeding as scheduled barring unforeseen circumstances. Historical precedent suggests that major LAN events rarely cancel matches outright; postponements are more common when visa delays or travel disruptions affect roster availability. The 7-day grace period built into settlement terms indicates organisers anticipate potential scheduling friction but expect most fixtures to resolve within the standard window.
Traders should monitor official The International schedule confirmations and both teams' roster announcements in the week preceding the match. TEAM VISION and Team Falcons' recent qualifier performances, scrim results, and any last-minute stand-in deployments will signal competitive readiness. Dota 2 esports rosters occasionally field substitute players at short notice, which can materially shift match outcomes but does not affect fixture cancellation risk. Watch for travel or logistical announcements from either organisation, particularly if either team has experienced visa complications or equipment delays en route to the venue. The settlement window closes at 16:05 ET on 13 August, allowing roughly 11 hours post-match for official result confirmation and market resolution.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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