Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 80% |
| Game 1 Winner | 71% |
| Game 2 Winner | 59% |
| Any Player Rampage | 57% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5) | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% |
| Any Player Rampage | 25% |
| Any Player Rampage | 25% |
Market context
TEAM VISION and BoomBoys meet in the upper bracket quarterfinals of The International 2026, Dota 2's premier annual championship. The best-of-three match is scheduled for 20 August at 01:00 ET, with settlement closing at 11:00 ET the same day. The 71% implied probability favours TEAM VISION, reflecting their positioning as the stronger outfit heading into the playoffs.
Recent form and roster stability matter considerably in International qualification brackets. TEAM VISION has maintained consistent performances through the regional qualifiers, whilst BoomBoys secured their spot through a more competitive path. Head-to-head records between these squads in 2026 regional tournaments show TEAM VISION winning the majority of encounters, though BoomBoys have demonstrated capacity to execute specific draft strategies that exploit weaknesses in TEAM VISION's mid-game rotations. Any roster changes announced in the fortnight before the match—particularly mid-lane or support position swaps—would materially shift the matchup dynamics, as would injury or suspension news affecting either team's core players.
Traders should monitor official The International schedule updates for any postponement announcements, given the tight settlement window. Patch changes deployed by Valve in the days immediately before the match could favour one team's hero pool over the other. Team statements regarding preparation intensity and scrim results, typically shared through team social channels or esports news outlets like Liquipedia and DOTA2.com, often signal confidence levels that precede playoff performances. Any last-minute roster substitutions would trigger immediate line movement and could push settlement into the 50-50 tie resolution if administrative delays occur.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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