Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 66% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 35% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Match Winner | 22% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Vici Gaming and GamerLegion face off in Round 3 of The International 2026 group stage on 14 August, with the match scheduled for 3:10 AM ET. This best-of-three encounter carries significant weight in determining advancement prospects, as group-stage seeding directly influences playoff bracket positioning and potential opponent matchups. Both organisations field rosters with international pedigree, though recent roster moves and player availability remain critical variables heading into the tournament proper.
Vici Gaming enters as the higher-seeded outfit based on regional performance metrics and recent Dota Pro League standings, though The International's group-stage format has historically produced upsets when preparation timelines diverge or meta adaptation favours unconventional strategies. GamerLegion qualified through the regional qualifier route, meaning their path to the main event required additional matches and compressed preparation windows compared to direct invitees. Head-to-head records between these squads across 2025 and early 2026 show competitive matchups without dominant patterns, suggesting the outcome hinges on current form rather than historical precedent.
Tournament scheduling dependencies and potential visa delays affecting non-regional players represent the primary wildcards for match execution. The International's history includes postponements due to travel complications, particularly for rosters spanning multiple continents. Traders should monitor official ESL or Valve announcements regarding any roster changes, stand-in deployments, or schedule adjustments in the 48 hours preceding the fixture. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty around match confirmation rather than analytical consensus on either team's capability.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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