Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp’s BO3 against Zero Tenacity in EPL Masters Group B is a close regional matchup on paper, but the market has been dragged to 0% YES despite both sides sitting in the same broad tier of European Dota. Strafe lists Zero Tenacity slightly higher in the world rankings at #47 versus PuckChamp at #49, and says Zero Tenacity have won three of their last five matches compared with PuckChamp’s one win in five[2]. DLTV’s match page gives PuckChamp a 41% win rate and Zero Tenacity 53%, which supports the idea that the market is treating this as a weaker PuckChamp spot rather than a routine coin flip[10].
The historical frame is thin: Strafe says this is the first time the teams have met, and there is no recent head-to-head sample to anchor a stronger price[2][7]. That matters because both squads have shown volatility rather than stable elite form. PuckChamp’s recent results include wins over weaker opposition but also losses in their last five, while Zero Tenacity’s last five have been more productive and include cleaner series wins[3][6]. In markets like this, the absence of a proven matchup edge usually means traders lean on current form and roster continuity rather than name value alone.
The main catalyst is whether the scheduled 09:00 UTC start holds and whether either side fields the same line-up that appears in the match listings: PuckChamp’s listed starters include dualrazee, Yuragi, krol9ash, Gothic- and Hyuga, while Zero Tenacity’s list includes mrls, MikSa`, Nesfeer, Worick and MoOz[3][6]. Any last-minute substitution, lobby delay, or bracket adjustment would matter more than usual because the settlement window runs to 15:00 UTC and the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or pushed beyond seven days without a winner[1][2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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