Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs FTS (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FTS and PuckChamp are already deep into the Asgard Championship Playoffs, with the lower-bracket round-one best-of-three having been scheduled for 8 August at 13:00 UTC and later shown as finished 2-0 to FTS on multiple live score pages. That matters because a market priced at 100% YES normally reflects either a near-certain result or, in some cases, stale pricing after the match outcome has already been effectively locked in by live data.
The best recent frame for this pairing is straightforward: FTS had the better momentum entering the series, while PuckChamp’s form has been less convincing. One match database lists FTS as having won three of their last four series in the event, including a 2-0 over PuckChamp, whereas PuckChamp had lost to FTS and Team Lynx in the same run; another tracker also shows FTS ahead in recent head-to-head context, with no meaningful long-running rivalry to lean on beyond this tournament meeting. Team pages additionally suggest PuckChamp carried a clearer published roster and world ranking, but FTS were not far behind on the live ranking snapshots used by esports sites, which helps explain why the line can move quickly on short-format playoff games.[4][8][10][12]
For traders, the key catalysts are not injuries but administration: whether the series is officially recorded as complete, whether the bracket schedule is kept on time, and whether any admin ruling, pause, or forfeit changes the settlement outcome. Tournament listings still show adjacent playoff matches on the same day, so delays would most likely come from the event timetable rather than a team-specific issue; if the result remains formally unsettled past the seven-day window, the market rules fall back to 50-50. The main live signal to watch is the match record itself, because several current sources already report a completed FTS win, which would normally settle the market in line with that result.[1][3][6][9][14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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