Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
The International 2026 group stage will feature a Round 3 best-of-three between BoomBoys and TEAM VISION on 14 August at 1:00 AM ET. BoomBoys, the Southeast Asian representatives, have historically competed at The International with inconsistent results; their qualification pathway typically involves regional qualifiers where they face established squads from their region. TEAM VISION's participation signals either a direct invite or a successful qualifier run, though their competitive pedigree at Valve's premier event remains less documented than established powerhouses. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about match occurrence or market illiquidity rather than confidence in either side's chances.
Recent Dota 2 roster movements and suspension protocols merit close attention. The International operates under strict eligibility windows; any roster changes within 30 days of the event trigger review by Valve's competitive operations team. Both organisations must field players who competed in their respective regional qualifiers or secured explicit roster exception approvals. Injury or visa complications affecting key players—particularly position one (carry) or position five (support) roles—can force last-minute stand-ins or withdrawal. The settlement window closes 14 August at 10:35 UTC, providing minimal buffer after the scheduled 1:00 AM ET start, meaning delays beyond six hours could trigger the postponement clause and reset the resolution timeline.
Traders should monitor official The International broadcast schedules and both teams' social media channels for lineup confirmations 48 hours before match time. Cancellation risk remains material given esports' vulnerability to technical infrastructure failures and travel disruptions affecting international events.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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