Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Match Winner | 22% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DAN (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Team AION (-1.5) vs Dandelions (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team AION meet Dandelions in a best-of-three EPL Masters Play-In group match, with the market currently pricing almost no chance of Team AION winning. The numbers in the match previews explain why: Team AION have taken just one win from their last five, while Dandelions are also on a poor recent run but still carry a stronger regional profile and higher ranking in the available pre-match data.[1][2]
Historically, this sort of gap has tended to matter more in short Dota 2 series than in longer league formats, because underdogs can steal a map but still struggle to convert a BO3 without cleaner drafting or more stable laning. The comparable case here is that Team AION did beat Nemiga recently, which shows upset potential, but the broader form line remains weak: recent losses to Hive and Spirit Academy sit alongside a low win rate over the last month, while Dandelions have at least shown they can reach deeper stages in qualifiers and stay competitive against regional opposition.[2][9]
The main catalysts for traders are roster confirmation, any last-minute stand-ins, and whether the series starts on schedule. The published line-ups on match pages list Dandelions’ five, but Team AION’s active roster is less consistently documented, so any late player change would be the clearest source of movement.[2][8] It is also worth watching for delay or rescheduling risk: the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, ends tied, or is pushed beyond seven days without a winner, which makes event completion itself a relevant factor as the scheduled start approaches.[7][10]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions (BO3) - … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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