Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
WW Team face TDK in a CIS LAN Championship playoffs best-of-three, and the market is effectively pricing a near-certain TDK advance because the crowd-implied line sits at 100% for **YES**. That is a very aggressive read against the published form: Strafe lists TDK at #22 and WW Team at #67, with TDK winning four of their last five and WW Team three of five, while also noting this is their first recorded head-to-head meeting.[2]
The most useful historical frame is that the previous comparable meeting between the sides is sparse rather than decisive: available match records show they have not built a long direct rivalry, so traders are leaning more on current level and bracket context than on matchup history.[2][7] There is also a counterweight from the wider CIS LAN run, where WW Team have already produced playoff wins in this event cycle, including a 2-1 over Nemiga in the quarter-finals, while TDK arrive from a narrower sample of results and a prior loss to 1WIN in the same tournament ecosystem.[3]
For traders, the key catalyst is simple: whether the semifinal actually goes ahead on schedule and with the listed line-up, because no late roster note or injury report is visible in the available match pages, and esports outcomes here are often driven by last-minute team-sheet changes rather than physical availability.[1][4] The scheduling detail also matters: different listings show local-start variance of a few hours, so confirmation from the bracket page or organiser feed is the main dependency if there is any delay, rescheduling, or technical default risk.[1][4][8]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: WW Team vs TDK (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: WW Team vs TDK (BO3) - C… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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