Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-9.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-9.5) vs WW Team (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
WW Team’s Round of 16 meeting with CYBERSHOKE Prospects in the NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs is already under way, so the market’s 0% YES crowd price is now being tested by live match state rather than pre-match sentiment.[1][4] Pre-event pricing had favoured WW Team heavily in vote-based markets, with one listing putting WW at 91.5% of community support, while rankings also had WW slightly ahead of CYBERSHOKE Prospects at No. 60 versus No. 101.[10] That left little room for a CYBERSHOKE upset on paper, but the market was not pricing a one-way mismatch: recent form data showed WW with four wins in five and CYBERSHOKE with three wins in five entering the tie.[6][10]
The main historical guide is the narrowness of the prior head-to-head and the volatility of both line-ups’ recent form. WW won their last recorded meeting 2-0 in November 2025, but older results also show CYBERSHOKE beating WW 2-1 in September 2024, which supports reading this as a live BO3 where veto and map one matter more than the names alone.[11][16] On current rosters, WW have kept the same five-man core listed by match trackers, while CYBERSHOKE Prospects have also fielded a stable academy-style lineup, so any shift in the market is more likely to come from map performance than from late personnel changes.[2][6]
Traders should watch for three catalysts: official score updates from the live match feed, any pause or admin notice that could affect completion before the settlement deadline, and whether the series reaches a decider map.[1][12] Match listings show slight schedule variance around the start time, which is common in CS2 events, but if the BO3 is completed with a winner the market should resolve normally; if it is abandoned, not played, or left unresolved beyond seven days, it falls to 50-50 under the rules.[4][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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