Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-3.5) vs Lynn Vision (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO and Lynn Vision face off in the BLAST Open Asian Qualifier Playoffs final today, a Best-of-3 showdown for the sole Chinese spot at the upcoming major. The market’s 100% YES probability on a TYLOO win appears anchored by their recent 2-0 victory over Lynn Vision at the IEM Cologne Major 2026, which broke a long-standing trend where Lynn Vision dominated the head-to-head with 27 wins to TYLOO’s 11 across 38 matches [1][5]. However, historical dominance by Lynn Vision in previous years contrasts sharply with TYLOO’s current 2W-3L form and their ability to secure the last two encounters, including a decisive Cologne win where Lynn Vision lost two maps to M80 and MIBR before elimination [1][4].
Traders must monitor for any pre-match roster changes or forfeits, as TYLOO recently forfeited a match against Lynn Vision at the Yuqilin LAN, raising concerns about lineup stability or internal issues [3]. The full rosters are confirmed as JamYoung, Jee, Mercury, Moseyuh, and zero for TYLOO, versus C4LLM3SU3, EmiliaQaQ, Starry, westmelon, and z4kr for Lynn Vision, with no reported injuries or suspensions at this stage [1]. Key dependencies include the match start time of 2:30AM ET and the cancellation clause, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution if the event is delayed beyond seven days or not played [1]. Given the tight four-round margin in Cologne and the volatility of Asian qualifiers, the 100% implied probability leaves little room for error if Lynn Vision’s historical map superiority reasserts itself.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Asian Qualifier Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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