Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-2.5) vs K27 (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 4 Winner | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-12.5) vs K27 (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-6.5) vs Heroic (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs K27 (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 100% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-07-18T22:10:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs K27 (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs K27 (BO5) - St… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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