Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 51% |
| Match Winner | 51% |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs Team Comanche (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs Team Comanche (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs Team Comanche (+6.5) | 43% |
| Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs Team Comanche (+1.5) | 41% |
Market context
CYBERSHOKE Esports play Team Comanche in a best-of-three CIS LAN Championship Group A match, with the market sat close to a coin flip at 49% YES. The scheduling data is consistent across listings, but the start time has shifted in some feeds, from 06:00 UTC to 09:00 on one tournament page, so traders should treat the live status rather than the headline time as the key signal.[1][2][8]
The most recent form on public results points slightly towards CYBERSHOKE. They have a 2-1 defeat to EF, but also straight-map wins over BET-M 33 and WhiteBIT in their last three recorded matches, while one match listing says they had won once in a row ahead of this fixture.[7][6] Comparable past CIS LAN market context also shows CYBERSHOKE can be priced on middling but improving form: in the May CIS LAN playoff market against ARCRED, they were described as having mixed momentum after earlier regional results rather than clear dominance.[13]
The main catalysts are roster confirmation and whether the event proceeds exactly as listed. One match database still shows Team Comanche’s line-up as unknown, while CYBERSHOKE’s five-player unit is named, which matters in a BO3 where stand-ins or late changes can move maps sharply.[6] Liquipedia and tournament schedules identify this as CIS LAN Championship #6, but if the match is delayed beyond seven days, cancelled, or ends without a winner, the market resolves 50-50, so late event notices and bracket updates are directly relevant.[9][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Team Comanche (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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