Pronóstico: Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House as the market prices a 9% chance he resigns or is removed before the end of 2026. This low probability reflects the extreme constitutional and political hurdles required to oust a sitting president, particularly one with Trump’s entrenched support base and willingness to contest any removal attempt.

Historically, no president has ever been removed via impeachment; Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump himself were all impeached but acquitted by the Senate, with Trump’s two trials ending in 52–48 and 53–47 votes against conviction, far short of the 67 needed [2][3][4]. Even Nixon, who faced near-certain removal, resigned before formal impeachment, underscoring that resignation is more common than forced removal. The market’s 9% figure aligns with this precedent: while Trump has been convicted of criminal charges post-office [1], no sitting president has been removed, and the Senate’s partisan balance makes conviction unlikely.

Traders should monitor upcoming Senate hearings, potential House impeachment resolutions, and any legal developments tied to Trump’s 2024 criminal convictions, which could pressure him politically. A recent BBC report notes that Trump’s 2019 impeachment stemmed from Ukraine-related pressure on a rival, a pattern that could recur if new evidence emerges [5]. Watch for announcements from key Republican senators, shifts in public opinion polls, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment, though temporary removals do not settle this market. The settlement window closes 31 December 2026, so any resignation or removal announcement before then resolves the market to “Yes” immediately.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.