Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the closing price of Bitcoin on 26 June 2026 at 5pm EDT, which determines whether the market settles YES or NO at the current 31% implied probability. Historical patterns show Bitcoin has swung from a peak of $126,198 in October 2025 to a low of $60,074 in early 2026, with June 2026 forecasts clustering between $61,818 and $66,474[1][2]. Comparable volatility in mid-year periods suggests the current probability reflects a cautious stance, as prices have vacillated between $65,000 and $73,000 in early March before dipping again[7].

Traders should monitor announcements from US regulatory bodies and institutional adoption metrics, as these directly influence short-term price movements. Recent technical analysis indicates a minimum cost of $65,831 and a maximum potential of $91,945 for 2026, with an average trading price near $78,888[2]. A key dependency is the scheduled release of global M2 money supply data, which some models link to a potential peak of $444,000 by mid-2026 due to shrinking tradable supply[6]. The Robinhood prediction market currently prices the range between $60,000 and $60,499.99 as most likely, reinforcing the need to watch for any sudden shifts above $61,818[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.