Pronóstico: ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland

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Market context

The ICC Women’s T20 World Cup match between West Indies and Ireland on 27 June 2026 in Hobart is the real-world event driving this prediction market, with crowd-implied probability at 100% YES for a West Indies win. Yet historical precedent complicates this certainty: Ireland recently defeated West Indies by nine wickets in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup in Hobart, scoring 150/1 to West Indies’ 146/5, and also claimed their first-ever T20I win against West Indies Women in a low-scoring thriller where Orla Prendergast scored 71 on her birthday [1][2][3]. These results show Ireland can dismantle West Indies under pressure, especially in Hobart, meaning the 100% probability may reflect market overconfidence rather than form.

Traders must monitor pre-match line-up announcements, injury updates, and toss outcomes, as West Indies Women’s form has been volatile (LWWWL in last five T20Is) while Ireland Women sit at LLLLW, having just broken their losing streak [7]. Any withdrawal of key players like West Indies’ Hayley Matthews or Ireland’s Prendergast could shift the line dramatically. Additionally, weather conditions in Hobart and pitch reports from Cricbuzz will be critical, as rain-affected matches often trigger DLS calculations that have previously favoured Ireland in tight contests [5]. The settlement hinges on the official result published by espncricinfo.com, where even a tied match resolved via Super Over counts as a win [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.