Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the July 2026 Consumer Price Index report on 12 August 2026, measuring the one-month seasonally adjusted change in prices paid by urban consumers across the United States. This monthly figure strips out volatile food and energy components to reveal underlying inflation momentum, and serves as a key input for Federal Reserve policy decisions and financial market positioning.

Month-on-month CPI changes have historically clustered in a narrow band. Since 2020, the seasonally adjusted monthly increase has ranged between −0.1% and +0.8%, with the median sitting around +0.3%. The 0% implied probability on this market suggests traders are pricing out the possibility of a flat or negative monthly reading—an outcome that would require either deflation or an unusually sharp deceleration from recent trends. Comparable periods of near-zero monthly inflation have been rare outside of pandemic-era disruptions and the immediate aftermath of demand shocks.

Traders should monitor labour market data releases in the weeks preceding the August report, particularly the July employment figures due on 1 August, as wage growth directly influences service-sector pricing. Energy prices in July will also matter; crude oil volatility can shift headline inflation readings materially. The Federal Reserve's policy stance and any forward guidance issued in late July will shape expectations around demand-side pressures. Historical precedent suggests monthly CPI readings below +0.2% occur in roughly one-quarter of months, making the current zero probability an outlier assumption about July's inflation trajectory.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Monthly. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.