Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

The July 2026 US CPI print will be the annual change in the all-items Consumer Price Index for the 12 months to July, with the BLS release due on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The market is currently pricing only a 2% chance of the settlement landing on the YES side, which implies traders expect the year-on-year figure to remain well below the kind of inflation spike seen earlier in 2026, or at least not to jump sharply enough by August to flip the outcome.

The main recent reference point is June, when headline CPI rose 3.5% year on year after 4.2% in May, helped by a 5.7% fall in energy prices and a 0.4% monthly decline in the index, the first since April 2020. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and ran at 2.6% year on year, which suggests the July comparison will be driven less by one-off energy moves and more by whether shelter, services, and goods inflation re-accelerate. Earlier in the spring, inflation had already moved up from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, so the base effect into July is important: a strong monthly gain in July 2026 would be enough to keep annual CPI elevated, but the June drop raises the hurdle for a renewed surge.

Traders should watch the next monthly BLS release, any further swings in gasoline and broader energy prices, and whether tariff-related cost pressures continue to filter through to core goods. The July BLS report will also matter because it is the last comparable data point before the August settlement, and Reuters noted after the June print that inflation had eased more than expected but still did not remove upside risks in markets. If July’s monthly change is mild, the annual rate should stay close to June’s 3.5%; if prices rebound sharply, the probability attached to a higher-year-on-year outcome could rise quickly before the August release.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: July Inflation US - Annual. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.