Pronóstico: Will Silver (SI) hit 2026 by end of June?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is whether the CME settlement price for the front-month Silver (SI) futures contract will reach or exceed a specific threshold by the final trading day of June 2026. Current market-implied probability sits at 0% for a "Yes" outcome, reflecting a consensus that prices will remain below the listed level. This aligns with recent trading where July Silver futures marked four consecutive sessions of lower lows, pressured by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar following the recent FOMC meeting[2].

Historically, silver settlement odds in similar June windows cluster tightly around current spot levels near $70 per ounce, with the $60–$70 and $70–$80 buckets commanding 87.6% of market-implied probability on comparable platforms[1]. Comparable cases show that structural supply deficits, such as the Silver Institute’s projection of a 46.3 million ounce shortfall in 2026, often fail to offset macroeconomic headwinds like high yields unless rates stabilise or fall[2]. The current 0% probability suggests traders view the macro environment as a dominant constraint, outweighing the 15% year-over-year increase in the global supply deficit[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve communications and U.S. Treasury yield movements, as stabilising or lower rates could eventually form a longer-term bottom in the market[2]. The CME Group website remains the definitive resolution source for daily settlement prices of the Active Month, so any deviation in official settlement data must be tracked against the listed threshold[1]. Recent volatility, including a 1.94% drop in settlement price on 25 June 2026 to $58.361, underscores the sensitivity to macro indicators rather than industrial demand alone[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Will Silver (SI) hit 2026 by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.