Pronóstico: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic abruptly disabled access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 on 12 June 2026 after receiving a mandatory US government export control directive tied to national security concerns. The order requires the company to suspend all access for foreign nationals, regardless of location, including foreign national employees, forcing Anthropic to cut off the models for every customer to ensure compliance.

Historical precedents for such regulatory suspensions in frontier technology show that temporary bans driven by export controls rarely become permanent policy shifts unless new legislation follows. In similar cases involving advanced computing restrictions, companies have restored access within weeks once compliance frameworks were clarified or diplomatic channels resolved the underlying security concerns. The current 0% market probability appears overly pessimistic given Anthropic’s public statement that they believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible, with no confirmed technical vulnerability or permanent policy change indicated.

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: official announcements from Anthropic regarding compliance progress, any new US government guidance on AI export controls, and potential substitute model releases that might confirm access restoration. Reuters reported on 13 June that the directive specifically targets foreign nationals but the practical impact is broader, suggesting the situation remains fluid. Watch for statements confirming whether the suspension is lifted for US customers specifically, as the market resolves only if access is restored to US customers by the settlement date. Recent reporting from CNBC on 12 June confirms other Anthropic models remain unaffected, indicating the restriction is narrowly targeted rather than a blanket shutdown.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.