Pronóstico: Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic has just deprecated its original Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4 models on 15 June 2026, forcing users to migrate to newer variants like Sonnet 4.6, which launched in February 2026 and is now the default on free tiers[4][5]. With the settlement window ending in July 2026, the market hinges on whether the next Sonnet-branded model—potentially Sonnet 5.0 or 4.7—will be publicly released before that date, a timeline that aligns with community speculation that Sonnet 5 could arrive in January 2026, though delays remain possible[2].

Historically, Anthropic’s Sonnet releases have followed a tight cadence: Sonnet 3.5 launched in June 2024, Sonnet 3.7 in February 2025, and Sonnet 4.5 in September 2025, with Sonnet 4.6 arriving just five months later in February 2026[1][5][6]. This pattern suggests a high probability of a new Sonnet model before July 2026, supporting the 99% YES crowd-implied probability, though the recent deprecation of Sonnet 4.0 introduces a dependency on migration readiness that could influence launch timing[4].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements for any Sonnet 5 or 4.7 release, particularly given the upcoming availability of Claude Fable 5 in June 2026, which may signal broader model rollout activity[7]. The key catalyst is whether Anthropic confirms a Sonnet variant before the settlement deadline, as the deprecation of older models creates urgency for a public successor[4]. Recent Reddit speculation points to a January 2026 release for Sonnet 5, but no official confirmation has been issued yet[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.