Pronóstico: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver exactly one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, according to its latest Summary of Economic Projections, even as officials foresee stronger growth and higher inflation than previously forecast [1]. This median outlook aligns with the December 2025 consensus, where the median FOMC member also anticipated a single reduction for the coming year [1]. Yet the path remains uneven: while the median points to one cut, at least one official advocates for four, and some analysts, including Goldman Sachs, forecast cuts in March and June after a January pause [1][3]. Conversely, J.P. Morgan sees no cuts in 2026 and expects a hike by September 2027, while Morningstar’s Caldwell projects two cuts—one more than the Fed’s median [2][6].

Traders must watch upcoming inflation data, particularly core and headline figures, as the Fed now expects inflation to reach 2.7% by year-end, above its 2% target [1]. Any surprise tariff policy could further fuel inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the number of cuts or even triggering a rate hike [2]. The next FOMC meeting calendar and the timing of the September 2026 SEP release will be critical, as shifts in the median participant’s view could move the market from one to zero cuts [10]. Recent hawkish tone from the Fed, including pricing in a possible October hike, underscores the fragility of the current 80% YES probability [5]. With unemployment forecast at 4% and no major labour market weakening expected, the Fed’s dual mandate may prioritise inflation control over easing [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.