Pronóstico: Bitcoin above 2026 on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is whether Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute candle closes above the title’s threshold at noon ET on 26 June 2026. With the crowd-implied probability at 99% YES, the market assumes the price will comfortably exceed that level, reflecting Bitcoin’s recent stability above $61,000 and its upward trajectory into late June.

Historically, similar high-probability outcomes in crypto price-range markets have resolved “Yes” when the asset trades within a tight band above the threshold for days prior to settlement. In June 2025, Bitcoin held above $60,000 for over a week before a Robinhood price-range market resolved affirmatively with 98% initial confidence [1]. More recently, Binance data showed BTC crossing $61,000 with narrowed volatility, reinforcing the pattern that sustained levels above key benchmarks lead to near-certain resolutions [3].

Traders should watch for any sudden shifts in US monetary policy announcements, particularly the Federal Reserve’s June meeting outcome, which could trigger short-term volatility. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2028 remains a long-term catalyst, but immediate price movements may depend on institutional inflow data and ETF volume trends reported by Fortune on 17 June [2]. Any unexpected regulatory news from the SEC or a major exchange outage could also disrupt the expected smooth resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Bitcoin above 2026 on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.