Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
38% | 62% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
38% | 62% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| August 10 | 38% |
| No release by August 31 | 13% |
| August 12 | 12% |
| August 24 | 6% |
| August 25 | 5% |
| August 27 | 4% |
| August 18 | 3% |
| August 7 | 2% |
| August 8 | 2% |
| August 11 | 2% |
| August 16 | 2% |
| August 26 | 2% |
| August 28 | 2% |
| August 9 | 1% |
| August 13 | 1% |
| August 14 | 1% |
| August 17 | 1% |
| August 19 | 1% |
| August 20 | 1% |
| August 21 | 1% |
| August 29 | 1% |
| August 31 | 1% |
| On or prior to August 1 | 0% |
| August 2 | 0% |
| August 3 | 0% |
| August 4 | 0% |
| August 5 | 0% |
| August 6 | 0% |
| August 15 | 0% |
| August 22 | 0% |
| August 23 | 0% |
| August 30 | 0% |
Market context
Google’s next Pro-tier Gemini launch is still the key event, and the market is effectively asking when the company will move a flagship Pro model from testing into public access. That matters because Google has already shipped newer lightweight variants while leaving the Pro line behind: Gemini 3.1 Pro entered preview on 19 February 2026 across the Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI and related products, while Gemini 3.5 Flash reached general availability on 19 May 2026.[8][1]
The recent pattern argues for caution on any early-date assumption. Google originally signalled Gemini 3.5 Pro for June, then reports pushed that target to July as the model stayed in testing with early users, and Reuters said on 21 July that the flagship Pro model was still delayed and “coming soon”.[2][14] Google’s own model pages also show a staggered lifecycle: the company can keep a Pro model in preview for months before wider rollout, while newer non-Pro releases continue to appear in the meantime.[1][9]
For traders, the main catalysts are product announcements, release notes and whether a name containing **Pro** appears in public-facing docs or app rollouts before the settlement deadline. The market description is broad enough that a GA promotion of an existing preview build can count, so an update such as a “GA” label on a Pro preview, or a public launch via Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI or Enterprise, would be decisive.[1][8][9] By contrast, fresh Flash or Flash-Lite launches do not qualify, and Google’s July behaviour suggests it can keep back the flagship even while shipping smaller models.[14][10]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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