Pronóstico: GPT-5.6 released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI has not officially announced GPT-5.6, yet internal routing logs in its Codex backend briefly exposed a `gpt-5.6` identifier, confirming the model exists as a runnable artifact undergoing backend canary testing with real traffic. This leak, spotted by researcher Haider before vanishing from session files, signals that the model is being measured for performance and behaviour prior to any wider rollout, aligning with a compressed six-week flagship cadence seen since GPT-5.4 in March.

Historical precedent shows that prediction markets often misjudge model release dates despite strong community signals; Polymarket currently prices a June 30 public release at 89%, yet markets have been wrong about launch timing repeatedly this year. Comparable cases from the GPT-5 series reveal that while backend canaries reliably indicate existence, official public availability frequently lags behind internal testing, with no system card or release notes yet published to confirm a formal launch.

Traders should monitor OpenAI’s official blog, API documentation, and ChatGPT user tiers for any sudden appearance of GPT-5.6, as a release counts only if accessible to ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI. The primary prediction window opened June 22, with kindle-alpha clearing staging, but Yahoo Finance reports traders are abandoning bets due to the absence of an official announcement, system card, or programming interface listing. Watch for any mention of GPT-5.6 Pro or variants like Mini, as these would qualify toward a “Yes” resolution if OpenAI identifies them as part of the GPT-5.6 family.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.